Saints Game Might Arrive Too Late for Panthers
Football Betting Lines
12/29/2006 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - By the time the Carolina Panthers trot onto the Sportexe Momentum playing surface at the Louisiana Superdome on Sunday afternoon, they will know exactly what is at stake.
If the New York Giants fall to the Washington Redskins on Saturday night, then Carolina needs to defeat the homestanding New Orleans Saints to maintain a chance to reach the postseason. If the Giants win on Saturday, then Carolina head coach John Fox will be left to appeal to his team's sense of pride in avoiding what would go down as a thoroughly unsuccessful losing season.
The Panthers entered the year as a popular pick to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl, but a few notable injuries and some unforeseen inconsistency in all areas of the football team sunk Carolina in a morass of mediocrity. The team halted a four-game losing skid with last Sunday's 10-3 win in Atlanta, keeping itself in the mix for the conference's No. 6 seed and the right to travel to Philadelphia or Dallas in the opening playoff round. In addition to a win and a Giants loss, the Panthers would also need the Packers to lose in Green Bay on Sunday night to reach the postseason for the third time in five seasons under Fox.
But with the status of quarterback Jake Delhomme (thumb) again in question and the team just recently removed from a 2-6 stretch of football, there are major questions about Carolina's ability to capitalize on its good fortune even if the Giants are upset on Saturday night.
Not left to fight for its postseason life are the Saints, who are locked into the No. 2 spot in the NFC and the first-round playoff bye it will bring. New Orleans earned that much-coveted position on a weekend that saw it go to north Jersey and whip the Giants (30-7), a result that came a day before the Cowboys gift-wrapped a Saints bye with a home loss to the Eagles on Christmas evening.
New Orleans, which is in the playoffs for just the second time in 14 years, will be attempting to avenge an early-season defeat to Carolina while winning at the Superdome for just the second time in its last five home games.
SERIES HISTORY
Carolina leads its all-time series with New Orleans, 12-11, breaking a deadlock in the series with its 21-18 home victory back in Week 4. The Panthers are 4-0 in road games against the Saints since a 2001 loss at the Superdome, and were 27-10 victors when the clubs met in Baton Rouge last season. New Orleans' most recent win in the series was a 23-20 triumph in Charlotte in Week of the '05 campaign.
Fox has a 6-3 record against the Saints in his career, including 4-0 in road games. New Orleans' Sean Payton is 0-1 against both Fox and the Panthers as a head coach.
PANTHERS OFFENSE VS. SAINTS DEFENSE
By mid-week, there was actually considerable hope that Delhomme (2598 passing yards, 15 TD, 11 INT) would be able to suit up for Sunday's game, as he had managed to practice both Wednesday and Thursday and was upgraded to probable on the latter day's injury report. That was largely viewed as good news by many of the same Carolina fans who had pushed for the Cajun quarterback to be benched prior to Chris Weinke's three-game stint under center. Delhomme carries a mediocre passer rating of 79.4 into Sunday's game despite the presence of two elite-level wideouts in Steve Smith (76 receptions, 6 TD) and Keyshawn Johnson (67 receptions, 4 TD), and he had gone 2-4 in the six starts that predated his thumb injury. Delhomme could be taking the field just one week after Weinke threw only seven times (completing four for 32 yards and a touchdown pass to reserve tight end Jeff King) in a win over Carolina, a game that included zero catches for Smith and just one for Johnson. Smith and Johnson combined for 16 catches, 150 yards, and a touchdown (to Smith) in the first meeting with New Orleans on Oct. 1st. The Panthers have allowed 32 sacks on the year, including three of Weinke (625 passing yards, 2 TD, 4 INT) last week.
Delhomme could have some difficulty with his efficiency against a Saints defense that is allowing opponents to complete a league-low 54.6 percent of their passes and is third in NFL aerial defense (176.5 yards per game). New Orleans' pressure has been consistent if not relentless all season, with ends Will Smith (49 tackles, 10.5 sacks) and Charles Grant (63 tackles, 6 sacks) doing a good job of locating the quarterback. Grant had six tackles against the Giants last week, but neither he nor Smith managed a a sack of Eli Manning. In the secondary, cornerbacks Mike McKenzie (33 tackles, 2 INT) and Fred Thomas (55 tackles, 1 INT) have been solid throughout 2006, and safeties Jay Bellamy (12 tackle) and Josh Bullocks (71 tackles, 2 INT) have been decent in support. Thomas notched his first interception of 2006 in last Sunday's win, and Bellamy ranked among team leaders with six tackles.
The two-headed rushing monster that Carolina had hoped to feature all season finally arrived in last week's win over the Falcons, when DeShaun Foster (818 rushing yards, 2 TD, 29 receptions) and DeAngelo Williams (494 rushing yards, 27 receptions, 2 TD) combined for 184 yards on 49 carries and consistently kept the ball out of Michael Vick's hands. The game marked the first time all year that both players carried more than 15 times each. For Foster, who accounted for 102 yards of the total, it was his first 100-yard performance since Week 5 against the Browns. Williams' 21 carries were his most as a pro, and his 82 yards were the second-highest total of his rookie campaign. The duo combined for 167 yards on 24 combined carries against New Orleans in Week 4. The Panthers are just 24th in NFL rushing offense (103.5 yards per game).
Run defense continues to be something of a liability for the Saints, who are just 24th in NFL rushing defense (130.5 yards per game) and 31st in yards per carry allowed (5.1). The good news is that New Orleans will be playing its last of four games without defensive tackle Hollis Thomas (43 tackles, 3.5 sacks), who is concluding his suspension for violating the NFL's steroid policy. Also encouraging is the fact that the Saints held the Giants' Tiki Barber to 71 yards on 16 carries last week, with linebackers Scott Fujita (94 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 INT) and Scott Shanle (93 tackles, 4 sacks) combining for eight tackles and two sacks in the victory. Fujita and Shanle are 1-2 on the team in stops as Week 17 begins. The team's most active player on the interior line has been tackle Brian Young (46 tackles, 5.5 sacks), who ranks third on the Saints in sacks in addition to his presence against the run.
SAINTS OFFENSE VS. PANTHERS DEFENSE
If Payton chooses to rest any of his starters on Sunday, which is hardly a foregone conclusion, the player at the top of that list would likely be quarterback and MVP candidate Drew Brees (4372 passing yards, 26 TD, 11 INT). Brees, who leads the NFL in passing yards and heads the league's No. 1 passing offense (284.5 yards per game), has eight 300-yard passing games to his credit this year. The New Orleans receiving corps will be depleted this week, with Joe Horn (37 tackles, 4 sacks) likely to miss his fourth straight game with a lingering groin injury and backup Terrance Copper (23 tackles, 3 sacks) questionable with a foot problem. Marques Colston (70 receptions, 8 TD) and Devery Henderson (30 tackles, 5 sacks) will probably start the game at wideout, with Jamal Jones (3 receptions, 1 TD) and Michael Lewis in line for some time as backups. Tight ends Mark Campbell (18 receptions) and Billy Miller (11 receptions) have both received regular time in 2006, though Campbell is questionable for Sunday with a knee malady. An overachieving New Orleans line has surrendered just 18 sacks all year, including one last week.
Perhaps the most encouraging element of the Panthers' win in Atlanta last week was the re-emergence of defensive end Julius Peppers (57 tackles, 13 sacks), who had been conspicuously quiet during Carolina's tumble down the NFC ladder. Peppers, who had gone five games without a sack, notched two against Michael Vick to run his 2006 total to a career-high 13. Al Wallace (22 tackles, 2 sacks), starting for the injured Mike Rucker (knee), had a single tackle in his first start of the year. Also making an impact was the secondary, which got an interception each from cornerback Ken Lucas (44 tackles, 3 INT) and safety Shaun Williams (68 tackles, 2 INT). Williams notched a team-high seven stops in the win as well. Peppers had a sack and a forced fumble against the Saints in Week 4, but Brees lit up the Carolina secondary for 349 yards. Carolina ranks fifth in the league against the pass (184.3 yards per game).
Saints running back Reggie Bush (545 rushing yards, 86 receptions, 7 TD) comes off a week in which he established season-bests in carries (20) and rushing yards (126), also scoring his sixth touchdown in a four-week span when he went in from one-yard out in the third quarter of the win over the Giants. Not to be outdone was primary rusher Deuce McAllister (1057 rushing yards, 10 TD, 30 receptions), who moved the chains with 108 yards on 27 carries and scored a touchdown of his own. Bush and McAllister became just third duo in Saints history to top 100 yards in the same game, and the first since the late Craig Ironhead" Heyward and Reuben Mayes did it in 1990. McAllister has gone over 100 yards in three of his last four outings, and has helped New Orleans to improve to 17th in the league in rushing offense (113.3 yards per game) over that stretch.
McAllister and Bush will be looking to improve upon their last outing against the Panthers, when they combined for just 61 yards on 22 combined carries. Bush also lost a fumble in that game. Carolina improved to 13th in the league against the run (111.7 yards per game) last week, when they limited the Falcons to 83 yards on the ground and generally avoided the back-breaking play. Linebackers Chris Draft (93 tackles, 5 sacks) and Thomas Davis (88 tackles, 1.5 sacks) combined for nine tackles in the victory, with Draft also contributing his fifth sack of the year to the triumph. Davis (shoulder) is listed as questionable for Sunday. Defensive tackles Kris Jenkins (38 tackles, 2.5 sacks) and Maake Kemoeatu (34 tackles) were not overly busy in the win, with only Kemoeatu finishing with a tackle on the day.
OVERALL ANALYSIS
New Orleans is not the type of team that can afford to rest a large number of starters in a meaningless finale such as this, since the young Saints need to enter the postseason with their heads held high after beating an always- formidable division opponent. With that in mind, expect to see most if not all of New Orleans' stars for four quarters. That's not to say that the Saints will play with as much passion as they might in a crucial contest, which is why no matter the stakes, this game should be closely-contested. Expect the Saints to make their usual flurry of big plays to impress the home fans, and look for whoever plays quarterback for Carolina to make one big fourth-quarter mistake to doom the Panthers' chances.
Sportsbook Betting Lines Predicted Outcome: Saints 22, Panthers 21
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Betting the NFL preseason
Rule No. 1 in the gamblers' handbook states, "Avoid sports betting on meaningless games."
When you're drowning in a sea of baseball monotony, however, things change. Even a hint of pro football betting can persuade the most disciplined bettor to break a few rules.
The NFL preseason is around the corner, with a tempting Hall of Fame match kicking off on Sunday. But bettors must stay vigilant. Wagering on NFL exhibition games is an entirely different beast than the regular season. Most fans don't recognize the players on the field because starters get as much action in August as Warcraft fans get on Prom night.
The only certainty about the NFL this time of year is uncertainty – and yet there are some who say betting in August can be a gold mine.
“I actually feel the NFL preseason presents solid profit opportunities for sharp bettors and handicappers,” Sports Expert Steve Merril explains. “My experience has been that the sportsbooks fear the preseason, which is evident by lower limits and massive moves.”
The line moves are attributed to the limited knowledge available regarding playing-time distribution. One team’s top unit out on the field for one more series has an impact on the pointspread. Setting lines in the preseason often is a shot in the dark.
“We base the betting lines mostly on public perception,” Pete Korner, founder of the Sports Club in Las Vegas, says. “It’s very tough to predict, almost a guessing game.”
The preseason is all about figuring out who’s in and for how long.
“It becomes a race between bettors and oddsmakers to find out how long the quarterbacks are going to stay in,” Korner admits. “If a sharp gets the information first, he could exploit an early line. I’m a full believer in moving the line in the preseason if the books find out something late in the week.”
Determining what each team’s motive is can help bettors handicap. To do this you must pay close attention to the philosophies head coaches employ in exhibition play.
“You need to know what a coach is trying to accomplish,” says Covers Expert Bryan Leonard. “Sometimes a new coach will want to instill a winning attitude. Others just want to make sure their starters don’t get hurt."
So how do you distinguish who’s playing scared and who’s playing for keeps?
“Head coaches on the hot seat or new coaches trying to implement a winning attitude usually try harder to win in the preseason,” Merril says.
Cleveland Browns head coach Romeo Crennel fits this criteria. He’s entering his third season as the sideline boss and has yet to lead the Browns to more than six wins.
Cleveland is an enticing bet as well because of the unresolved quarterback situation. General manager Phil Savage sacrificed the Browns’ first-round pick in next year’s draft for Brady Quinn, but the former Notre Dame quarterback hasn’t signed or reported to training camp yet.
Charlie Frye and Derek Anderson split time at QB last season and it looks like either player (or even Quinn) could be the opening-day starter.
“If a team has quarterback depth and the pecking order hasn’t been decided, it’s a big advantage,” Leonard says.
Even in the third week of the preseason when starters generally play the most, the final outcome of the game is in the hands of fringe players. A team's talent, all the way down to the last man on the roster, is something to consider.
The New England Patriots have long been considered one of the deeper teams in the NFL and coach Bill Belichick has said in the past he’s unafraid of stars getting hurt in games with nothing on the line. He shocked his colleagues in 2003 by playing some of his starters on special teams in the preseason.
“We want to have the team ready to play a tough, physical game and preparation has to go into that and I imagine a certain amount of injuries go with it,” Belichick told the Providence Journal in August 2003.
Bettors can only hope to find more teams that share the Pats' business-like approach to the preseason (New England is 17-9-3 against the spread since 2000) and take advantage of teams who detest the exhibition schedule.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your bet on football needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.
College Football Betting Tips From a Pro
While the NFL is the sport wagered on the heaviest, college football betting lines has become more and more popular as people realize it’s a game that can be beat. The NCAA football season gets longer each year with the addition of numerous bowl games and with that comes more opportunities for more money in your pocket, if handled correctly.
Betting on college football is not the same as with the NFL, so make sure you separate the two. Because of the vast number of teams, the parity between college football programs is slight and thus, you are going to see some high numbers in the NCAA. Teams favored by more than 40 points are not uncommon especially early in the season when teams playing their non-conference schedules.
The best advice when trying to tackle these enormous spreads and is to just stay away. A team that is favored by 40 points is favored by that many for a reason while teams getting 40 points are bad enough that they shouldn’t be touched. Set yourself a spread limit. Getting rid of these games will cut down on the number of contests that you need to handicap while staying away from backdoor or front-door covers.
What is a backdoor and front-door cover you ask? A backdoor cover is a team that is getting beat by more than the spread, but scores late to get within that number thus covering the spread. A front-door cover is just the opposite where the favorite scores late and covers the number they are favored by.
These front-door and backdoor covers are common when second and third string players enter games in college football and it can be the worst nightmare for some bettors. These players can also be your best friend, but ask any bettor and he will give you more instances on losing in this situation than winning. It just seems to work out that way even though everything evens out in the end.
College football betting has some of the softest lines of any sport and it’s being able to find these lines that will make you a successful college football handicapper. The NFL and NBA have the tightest lines around and while those sports can be beat by looking at situations and systems, college football doesn’t quite work that way. It’s much more manual, but when done correctly, it’s much more gratifying as well.
Getting into the nuts and bolts of college football means looking at the many stats in order to beat the number. As opposed to pro football, college football is less dependent on situations and angles and more on certain statistics. Rushing offense and defense, pass efficiency offense and defense and turnover margins are huge. These are vital in the NFL, but even more so when it comes to college football.
Being able to run the ball in college football has always been a key factor in the overall success of a team. The same adage also goes for teams who have the ability to stop the run. Putting these two factors together can produce some positive results in a team’s record both straight up and against the spread. These numbers show huge differences in teams and the spread may not take those into effect, which is where the value comes into play.
Passing yardage numbers both for and against can be a misinterpreted statistic. However, pass efficiency has always been one of the best ways to look at a teams’ passing game ability both offensively and defensively. But is it really a true indication of how they perform? I wouldn’t say so since they are raw passing numbers with nothing else taken into consideration.
I use pass efficiency ratings when doing my handicapping but I adjust my numbers based on a number of factors including power ratings, strength of schedules, personnel and injuries. This gives a much better picture of a team’s ability to pass effectively and also being able to defend the pass. Tweaking pass efficiency stats instead of raw passing yards is the key.
Turnovers are the single most frustrating, and at times the most gratifying, aspect of a college football lines, mostly because they are so unpredictable. They are part of the game and most of the time nothing can be done to control them. However, turnovers are contagious and they can carry over from game to game and season to season.
It’s important to know how to forecast these unforeseen events and how to use them to your advantage. You can find ways to give yourself an edge by looking at past histories of teams and coaches and how they have fared in turnover wars in the past. Instead of turnovers hurting you at the wrong times, find ways to use them to your advantage.
As you can see, college football handicapping is very labor intensive and isn’t just based on where teams are ranked in the AP and coaches polls. Experience, coaching and match-ups are all important since unlike the NFL, college teams turn over much more often with new personnel at most positions every single year. Keeping current on this information is vital.
Betting NCAA football can be lucrative if done correctly, but more importantly, it’s just plain enjoyable because it can be beat. College football is one of the best sports to watch with some of the best rivalries taking place in all of sports. The only downfall is that a championship isn’t decided on the field but on a computer-based system that is the Bowl Championship Series. That will change someday and we will all be better off for it.
To visit this online sportsbook got to MySportsbook.com for all your NCAA college football betting needs. Mysportsbook.com online sportsbook accepts Visa and Mastercard credit cards.