Packers' O-line expects to keep Rodgers upright
Football Betting Lines
09/10/2010 -
GREEN BAY, Wis. (AP) - The Green Bay Packers' offensive line got off to such a bad start last year that it's even serving as a punchline for the satirical newspaper The Onion.
In its tongue-in-cheek NFL preview this week, the paper's website wrote, ``After giving up 50 sacks in 2009, Green Bay's offensive line appears to have forgiven Aaron Rodgers for whatever he did.''
The Packers can't hide from the pass protection failings that nearly derailed their season last year - they actually gave up a league-worst 51 sacks, as backup Matt Flynn wasn't completely spared from the carnage - but they're using their failures as a rallying point going into Sunday's regular season opener at Philadelphia.
``As we go through our offseason evaluations, sit and study things, where we need to improve, that's obviously at the top of the list,'' offensive coordinator Joe Philbin said. ``We can't go through another year like that. And so, yeah, I think for our staff, our players, there's hopefully some resolve and determination that let's get this thing back to where it needs to be.''
Center Scott Wells said the line has something to prove.
``We don't want to start the way we did last year,'' Wells said. ``Really, we played basically two different types of offense. The first half of the year was not very good and the second half was a lot better. So we want to go out from the get-go and play better than we did in the second half of last year. So we want to build on that, and move forward and improve at the same time.''
The Packers' biggest reason for optimism is right tackle Mark Tauscher, back at the spot that has belonged to him for most of the past decade. Tauscher knows the Packers' offense is loaded with talent and potential, and could be one of the league's best if the offensive line holds up its end of the bargain.
``It's now a fresh season, new start, and we realize we need to play better than we did last year to give our offense a chance to be as successful as we can be,'' Tauscher said.
Tauscher played a critical role in stabilizing the line last year, beginning the season out of football while he recovered from a knee injury and then re-signing with the Packers in October. He eventually reclaimed his starting spot after the Packers' ill-fated attempt to make Allen Barbre the starter.
After giving up a jaw-dropping 41 sacks in their first nine games, they allowed 10 in their final seven of the regular season.
Now Tauscher is back for a full training camp and season, feeling better than last year.
``Obviously, we've got a right tackle playing for us that's played a lot of football here in Green Bay,'' Philbin said. ``And no disrespect to the one we had last year, but we were trying somebody out in essence at right tackle. We've got a veteran player there who's played a lot of games in the National Football League.''
Offensive line coach James Campen even says Tauscher - a player never known for his bodybuilder-like physique - has slimmed down.
``He's in shape and he looks good,'' Campen said. ``He looks as good as he ever has. His weight's down, so I'm sure he's very confident.''
Another reason for optimism: Rodgers wasn't sacked once in the preseason, and their preseason opponents weren't all playing vanilla defensive schemes.
``Cleveland pressured us quite a bit, and they did a good job picking it up,'' Campen said. ``Now, if you ask them, was it always perfect? No. Was the quarterback hit a couple times? Yes. And they want to eliminate those as well.''
Sunday's game at Philadelphia will be a good test for the line's confidence. The Eagles are known for their exotic blitzes in recent years, and Packers coaches don't know if the more base-oriented defensive scheme they showed in the preseason is an indication of what they'll do in the regular season.
``You know going into the first game that a good amount of it is going to be unscouted, it's going to be a lot of things they didn't do in preseason they're saving for the regular season,'' Wells said. ``A lot of it's going to be relying on your experience, of the guys around you, and myself to make the right calls.''
And a strong performance against the Eagles would be a big first step for five guys out to prove they're no longer a league punchline.
``Just knowing what that was like and what that felt like and the criticisms, which were all just and correct, they don't want to go back to that,'' Campen said.Copyright © 2005 The Associated Press. All rights reserved. The information contained in the AP News report may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed without the prior written authority of The Associated Press.
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Sportsbook Betting Lines
Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?
Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.
“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.
“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?
There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).
How the Opening Line Is Made
The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.
Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.
The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.
Why Sports Betting Lines Change
Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game
Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.
Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.
Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”
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